Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.048409 0.055004 0.062371 0.071250 0.081710 0.093700 0.108573
2025-12-21 0.036072 0.043596 0.052665 0.064515 0.079759 0.098944 0.125289
2025-12-28 0.029892 0.038152 0.048808 0.063806 0.084780 0.113692 0.157702
2026-01-04 0.025668 0.034440 0.046490 0.064697 0.092319 0.134059 0.204816
2026-01-11 0.022006 0.030875 0.043774 0.064586 0.098704 0.155116 0.261812
2026-01-18 0.019040 0.027822 0.041283 0.064385 0.105197 0.178990 0.335250
2026-01-25 0.016279 0.024642 0.038062 0.062401 0.108444 0.198997 0.413121
2026-02-01 0.013836 0.021590 0.034543 0.059213 0.108861 0.214446 0.492143
2026-02-08 0.012310 0.019820 0.032895 0.059116 0.115526 0.246321 0.635042
2026-02-15 0.011057 0.018329 0.031496 0.059236 0.122938 0.284053 0.828357
2026-02-22 0.010084 0.017193 0.030564 0.060145 0.132700 0.333563 1.113541
2026-03-01 0.009227 0.016148 0.029632 0.060883 0.142580 0.390076 1.501628
2026-03-08 0.008264 0.014791 0.027907 0.059572 0.147247 0.435929 1.928916
2026-03-15 0.007172 0.013043 0.025104 0.055093 0.141694 0.445242 2.198212
2026-03-22 0.006597 0.012261 0.024250 0.055303 0.150447 0.515392 3.004337
2026-03-29 0.006175 0.011736 0.023883 0.056732 0.164003 0.618771 4.391279
2026-04-05 0.005738 0.011122 0.023214 0.057207 0.174895 0.723334 6.264845
2026-04-12 0.005339 0.010542 0.022534 0.057509 0.185646 0.841865 9.021102
2026-04-19 0.004899 0.009816 0.021388 0.056163 0.189646 0.930195 12.087267
2026-04-26 0.004453 0.009026 0.019969 0.053656 0.187965 0.984477 15.166888
2026-05-03 0.004177 0.008600 0.019420 0.053820 0.198274 1.138817 22.631497
2026-05-10 0.003936 0.008224 0.018947 0.054136 0.209782 1.325697 35.030336
2026-05-17 0.003743 0.007943 0.018682 0.055128 0.225534 1.584472 59.124612